Mortgage Rate Trends and Macro Policy Expectations Impacting Housing Market Liquidity

Over the past 48 hours, softer-than-expected December US jobs data has led to a decline in Treasury yields and mortgage rates, influencing housing market liquidity and refinancing activity. This shift reflects evolving macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policy expectations, emphasizing the importance of mortgage rate movements for market participants.

Recent data shows mortgage rates near multi-year lows, with 30‑year fixed averages slipping from 2025 peaks, creating an actionable window for refinancing and homebuying decisions amid changing macroeconomic signals and policy outlooks.

The Freddie Mac 30‑year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.16% on January 8, 2026, representing a modest weekly increase but remaining close to 15‑month lows, which supports increased housing market liquidity and refinancing activity. Meanwhile, the 15‑year fixed mortgage rate was at approximately 5.46–5.47%, appealing to higher‑income and equity‑rich borrowers.

Bankrate’s national average for the 30‑year fixed mortgage declined by 4 basis points week-over-week, indicating easing mortgage rates from recent peaks and potentially improving affordability for prospective homebuyers and refinancers.

These signals collectively suggest that macro policy expectations and recent soft economic data are contributing to lower borrowing costs and increased market engagement in housing finance, affecting liquidity conditions and capital flows in the mortgage sector.

The dataset does not specify the impact of these rate changes on overall liquidity levels or the specific volume of refinancing transactions, and it lacks forward guidance beyond these figures.

OSINT does not include detailed liquidity breakdowns or margin levels related to mortgage rate movements, nor does it provide forward guidance beyond the current data snapshot.

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