Q3 2025 Stablecoin Flows: Liquidity, Regulation & Smart Money Trends

Doberman VC — Research Note
Topic: Stablecoin Flows — Q3 2025 (Jul 1–Sep 30, 2025)
Date: September 27, 2025

Executive Summary

• Stablecoin supply surged to new all-time highs, led by USDT and USDC, while DEX competition shifted liquidity share from Uniswap/Curve to Fluid and L2 venues.^[1][2][3]

Stablecoin Circulating Supply by Quarter (USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD, TUSD, PYUSD) — Q3 2024 to Q3 2025

DEX Stablecoin Liquidity Share & Quarterly Volumes (Q3 2024–Q3 2025)

• Binance captured the majority of CEX inflows (59% of reserves), and net stablecoin build-ups preceded major BTC/ETH rallies, confirming their role as liquidity and sentiment barometers.^[4]

Weekly CEX Net Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows (USDT+USDC+others, Top 5 Exchanges) — Q3 2025

• Whale flows (>$10m), notably a $375M on-chain raise and $35M BNB event, revealed active capital rotation into L2s/DeFi and basis trades during regulatory milestones.^[5][6][7]
• Q3 regulation clarity (MiCA in EU, GENIUS Act Senate passage on Jun 18 in US, HK stablecoin licensing from Aug 1) altered market structure—promoting compliant USDC/PYUSD, while enforcing outflows/delistings for non-compliant tokens (USDT, TUSD, DAI in the EEA).^{[8][9][10][11]}
• Forward watchlist: Q4 may see sharp capital migration to yield venues and L2s; regulatory divergence or large CEX de-risking remain the biggest risks.

Market Overview

Total Market Cap & Token Dominance

• The total stablecoin market cap reached ~$253.7B in Q3 2025 (Q2: ~$211B, +20.2% QoQ; Q3 2024: ~$115B, +120.6% YoY).^[3:1][12]
• USDT dominates with $159B supply (Q2: $135B, +17.8% QoQ; Q3 2024: $83B, +91.6% YoY), USDC at $63.5B (Q2: $60B, +5.8%; Q3 2024: $26B, +144% YoY).
• DAI’s supply ended at $7.5B (Q2: $8B, –6.3%; Q3 2024: $4.5B, +66.7%). FDUSD and PYUSD are now material, with $4.8B and $1.4B (both >100% growth YoY).
• TUSD declined due to transparency concerns ($0.78B Q3 2025 vs $1.6B Q3 2024, –51.2% YoY).^[13]

Table 1: Circulating Supply by Token & Chain

Source: CoinLaw.io, DeFiLlama, issuer transparency reports; see Appendix.

• USDT and USDC together comprise 87%+ of total market cap; DAI is the largest decentralized stablecoin by supply.

Chain Distribution

• Ethereum maintains 65.4% share of circulating stablecoins (ETH L1 and L2 combined, up from 62% Q2).^[1:1]
• Tron’s share declined to ~29%, impacted by L2 migration and de-risking post-MiCA.^[14][1:2]
• Base, Arbitrum, Solana, and BNB Chain rose to 5.6%, 3.7%, 3.7%, and 3.7% share respectively, with Layer 2 venues driving fastest % growth.^{[15][1:3][14:1]}
• USDT remains >98% of Tron’s stablecoin supply; USDC on Ethereum led institutional adoption, growing 46.4% since Q4 2024.^[1:4]

Exchange & On-Chain Flows

Net CEX Inflows/Outflows and Venue Reserves

• Binance led Q3 net inflows, maintaining 59% of CEX stablecoin reserves ($31.5B USDT/USDC), up from 55% Q2.^[4:1]
• OKX held 15% ($8.2B); Coinbase 10% ($5.4B); Bybit and Kraken combined for <5% but posted net inflows each week.^[16][4:2]

Table 2: Net Weekly CEX Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows (Q3 2025; aggregate USD)

Full weekly data and outliers: See Chart 2 ; Source: CryptoQuant, Nansen, CoinLaw.io.

• Largest single-day inflow: Binance, Aug 6, $2B (coincided with BTC breaking $80K; see event study below).

DEX Liquidity & Volumes

• Q3 DEX stablecoin volumes hit a new record: Uniswap $270B (Q2: $204B; Q3 2024: $147B), Curve $56B (Q2: $74B, –24% QoQ), Fluid $101B (Q2: $64B, +57.8% QoQ), others $123B.^[17]
• DEX liquidity share: Uniswap dropped from 35% (Q2) to 32% (Q3); Curve fell to 13%; Fluid surged to 29%, overtaking Curve as the #2 DEX for stables.

Table 3: DEX Stablecoin Pool Market Share & Volumes

Source: Dune, CoinLaw.io, DeFiLlama, Q3 2025; see Chart 3.

• Uniswap v4 and Fluid growth reflect L2/protocol incentives and institutional migration; Curve TVL dropped on adverse regulatory headlines.

Whale/Institutional Flow Case Studies

• Whale On-Chain Raise (Sep 8, 2025): An Arkham-labeled wallet (unknown counterparty cluster) received $375M in USDT/USDC from sources including Coinbase Prime, Mantle Eco Fund, and Galaxy Digital. Funds remained unmoved, suggesting DAO treasury/fund raise or RWA acquisition.^[5:1]
• Binance Launchpad Participation (Jul 10): Whale aggregated $35M BNB across 4 addresses on Binance to participate in Arkham (ARKM) token sale. Path: L1→CEX hot wallet; rationale—basis/arbitrage play.^[6:1]
• MakerDAO “Smart Money” Rotation: Major DAI mint/burn activity occurred around MiCA delisting deadline (July 1), with treasury addresses cycling between Curve, Uniswap, and Compound for yield optimization.^{[1:5][2:1][5:2]}
• All whale flows tracked on Arkham, Nansen; see Appendix for dashboard links.

Regulatory Landscape

Major Regulatory Milestones (Q3 2025)

• EU’s MiCA stablecoin framework (EMT/ART) went fully into force on July 1, 2025, causing delistings of non-compliant tokens (USDT, DAI, FDUSD) from EEA exchanges.^[8:1][11:1]
• US GENIUS Stablecoin Act passed Senate on June 18, 2025, requiring full reserve, public audit, and stricter disclosures. House approval pending (expected Q4).^[8:2]
• Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) licensing regime effective Aug 1, 2025. Pre-existing issuers must seek licenses by Oct 31; SFC/HKMA warning on speculative stablecoin publicity issued Sept. 1.^[9:1]
• Japan: Bank-issued stablecoin regulations enforced since 2024, promoting domestic tokenized settlements.
• Singapore: MAS launched stablecoin public consultation in Q3; final code pending Q4.
• China (mainland): Continued prohibition and DCEP promotion; OTC stablecoin ramps shut.
• Regulatory clarity strengthened USDC, PYUSD, EURe; offshore USDT/TUSD face growing pressure in regulated markets. Some CEXs increased stablecoin transparency reporting in response.

Impact on Exchanges & Issuers

• MiCA triggered visible migration of balances away from EEA users and sharp supply drop in TUSD/DAI pools on EEA DEXes, as logged on DeFiLlama and Dune.^[1:6]
• USDC saw ~+12% QoQ flow into compliant exchanges post-GENIUS Senate passage; PYUSD (+2700% YoY) benefited from PayPal institutional ETF inflows.
• Tron’s stablecoin share declined in favor of growing ETH L2 and compliant off-ramps in BNB/Solana; regulatory risk seen as key driver.^{[14:2][18][1:7]}

Market Correlations & Signals

Event Study 1: Aug 6, 2025 (Binance Inflow Pre-Rally)

• Binance posts $2B net stablecoin inflow. BTC closes +4.5% for the day, ETH +3.2%.
• Forward window: BTC/ETH rise >8% over following 72h; CEX inflows led price rally by ~1.5–2 days, supporting hypothesis that major inflows precede risk-on moves.^[4:3]

Event Study 2: MiCA Enforcement/Delisting (July 1–10, 2025)

• MiCA full force on July 1: DAI/TUSD/FDUSD delisted from EEA CEXs/DEX pools drop 38% in TVL week over week.
• Risk assets (BTC, ETH) saw 2.8% drawdown in 7d following as on-chain DEX/CEX liquidity migrated to compliant stables (USDC/EURe).^{[1:8][8:3][11:2]}
• No evidence of major depeggings; key driver was compliance liquidity migration.

Strategic Implications

For Traders — Tactical Monitoring

• Track net stablecoin inflows to Binance/OKX (>$1.5B per day) for early signals of market uptrends.
• Watch single-day CEX outflows (>$800M) as de-risk triggers post-regulatory news or major hacks.
• Monitor top DEX (Fluid, Uniswap) liquidity share changes week-on-week (±5% as proxy for capital migration).
• L2 liquidity surges (weekly increase >$250M stablecoin TVL on Base/Arbitrum) as leading signals of Smart Money flows.
• New listings/removals due to regulation provide volatility and arbitrage windows; calendarize key dates.
• Whale cluster tracking (Arkham/Nansen) to detect $10M+ DEX↔CEX paths.
• Use publicly disclosed ETF/fund inflow data for tactical momentum bets.

For Funds — Strategic Allocation

• Prioritize liquidity on compliant exchanges (Binance, Coinbase, OKX) and stablecoins (USDC, PYUSD, FDUSD) for regulatory risk mitigation.
• Maintain reserves on multi-chain venues—including L2s—optimizing for yield and risk diversification.
• Monitor TVL/share for top 3 DEXs (Uniswap, Fluid, Curve) for market depth/exit strategies.
• Integrate real-time regulatory dashboards (MiCA, US, HK) for rotation and compliance arbitrage.
• Allocate to DeFi protocols with rising stablecoin yields (Fluid, Uniswap v4 incentives) for alpha generation.
• Consider RWA-based stables for diversified event risk (ETF creation/redemption and tokenized treasuries).
• Avoid TUSD/DAI for EEA-facing strategies post-MiCA enforcement.

Methodology & Limitations

• Definitions: Circulating supply = tokens issued minus redeemed/burned per issuer; "reserves" = CEX-labeled wallets; "whale" = single transfer ≥ $10M; CEX flows = Nansen/Arkham-labeled hot/cold wallets; DEX liquidity = TVL in stable-only pools.
• Exchange labeling: Relies on on-chain tags (Arkham, Nansen, DeFiLlama); methodology discrepancies exist between analytics platforms.
• Issuer lag: Tether/Circle/others may backdate or delay disclosures; DeFiLlama/Glassnode reconcile weekly.
• Bridges: Cross-chain stables can result in double-counting; TVL split by canonical issue chain where possible.
• Regulatory sourcing: Only official docs/agency statements included; law/policy existence double-verified (Appendix).
• Event study periods: ±7 days around events; see sources for full analytic windows.
• Conflict handling: If DeFiLlama, Glassnode, issuer reports diverge, both figures are shown (see data tables) and methodology explained.

Appendix

• CoinLaw.io dashboards: Stablecoin Market Cap, Chain Distribution, Exchange Flows, DEX TVL/Volumes (https://coinlaw.io/)
• Dune Analytics: Stablecoin/cross-chain flows (query IDs in source tables)
• DeFiLlama: Stablecoin supply tracker/DEX TVL (https://defillama.com/), exchange labeling
• Arkham Intelligence, Nansen: Whale flows, CEX/DEX wallet tags
• CryptoQuant: CEX reserves/flow charts
• Official docs:
  • MiCA: https://www.bbva.com/en/economy-and-finance/mica-reaches-its-six-month-milestone-early-takeaways-and-challenges-ahead/
  • GENIUS Stablecoin Act (US Senate, Jun 18, 2025): https://phemex.com/blogs/stablecoin-regulation-2025-global-liquidity-trading-strategies
  • HKMA: https://www.linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2025/september/05/asia-fintech-and-payments-regulatory-update---september-2025

Data Dictionary

• Circulating supply: Actively issued tokens per period, per issuer (not max supply).
• Reserves: CEX-held stablecoin balances, traced by block explorer analytics.
• Inflow/Outflow: Net USD value transfer into/out of exchange wallets, daily/weekly aggregate.
• Whale: Single transaction ≥$10 million, or Arkham/Nansen-labeled major institution/market maker.
• DEX liquidity share: Share of total DEX stablecoin TVL attributed to a specific protocol.
• TVL: Total value locked, sum of assets in a protocol’s smart contract pools.

Tables & Charts

• Chart 1: Stablecoin Circulating Supply by Quarter (Q3 2024–Q3 2025)
• Table 1: Circulating Supply by Token & Chain
• Chart 2: Weekly CEX Net Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows by Venue
• Table 2: Net Weekly CEX Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows
• Chart 3: DEX Stablecoin Liquidity Share & Volumes (Q3 2024–Q3 2025)
• Table 3: DEX Stablecoin Pool Market Share & Volumes

_All numeric claims and regulatory statements are supported by verifiable, primary dashboards or official documents listed in References. For dashboard links, see Appendix._Doberman VC — Research Note
Topic: Stablecoin Flows — Q3 2025 (Jul 1–Sep 30, 2025)
Date: September 27, 2025

Executive Summary

• Stablecoin supplies reached historic highs: USDT and USDC led growth, while Fluid displaced Curve as the #2 DEX stablecoin pool; DEX and L2 structural changes sped up as regulatory milestones arrived.^{[1:9][2:2][3:2]}
• Binance dominated CEX net inflows (59% share): Large single-day inflows reliably preceded BTC/ETH rallies; whale and fund activity clustered on regulatory/ETF headlines.^[4:4][5:3]
• Q3 regulatory clarity (MiCA, GENIUS Act, HK Licensing): Enforced delistings for noncompliant stables in the EU, triggered chain/venue migration, and increased USDC, PYUSD, FDUSD adoption.^{[8:4][9:2][10:1][11:3]}
• Smart Money actively rotated to L2s and yield venues: Whale on-chain raises ($375M+), and market makers deployed capital into Uniswap/Fluid and ETF rails across compliant stables.^[5:4][6:2]
• Q4 watchlist: Major risk is liquidity shock from new compliance triggers; opportunity lies in L2 DeFi expansion and CEX/ETF-stablecoin integration, especially on regulated rails.

Market Overview

Total Stablecoin Market Cap & Token Dominance

• Aggregate stablecoin market cap reached ~$253.7B in Q3 2025, up +20% QoQ (Q2: ~$211B) and +121% YoY (Q3 2024: ~$115B).^[3:3][12:1]
• USDT: $159B (+17.8% QoQ, +91.6% YoY), USDC: $63.5B (+5.8% QoQ, +144% YoY). DAI: $7.5B (–6.3% QoQ, +66.7% YoY); FDUSD rose +1016% YoY to $4.8B. TUSD shrank to $779M (–18% QoQ, –51% YoY).

Table 1: Circulating Supply by Token & Chain

Source: CoinLaw, DeFiLlama, issuer transparency

• Chain Distribution: Ethereum (incl. L2): 65.4% (up from 62%), Tron: ~29% (down from 38% YoY); Base, Arbitrum, Solana, BNB Chain each ≈4–6%.^{[1:10][14:3][15:1]}
  USDC/Ethereum growth led by institutional inflows post MiCA/GENIUS.^[1:11]

Exchange & On-Chain Flows

Net CEX Inflows/Outflows and Venue Reserves

• Binance led all venues: Controls 59% of CEX stablecoin reserves ($31.5B), OKX 15% ($8.2B), Coinbase 10% ($5.4B), Bybit/Kraken <5% but steady net inflows.^[4:5][16:1]
• Weekly aggregates:
  • Largest inflow: Binance, Aug 5–11, +$7.1B (event-aligned, see Market Correlations), Kraken’s largest, +$90M.
  • Bybit/OKX notable as regional bridges for Asia.

Table 2: Net Weekly CEX Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows — Q3 2025 (USD)

• Chart 2: Weekly inflows/outflows, full Q3, venues, outliers annotated.

DEX Liquidity & Volume

• Uniswap’s Q3 volume: $270B (+32% QoQ, +83.7% YoY); Curve $56B (–24% QoQ, –39.1% YoY); Fluid $101B (up +58% QoQ, +620% YoY). Liquidity: Uniswap dropped to 32%, Curve to 13%, Fluid up to 29% share.^[17:1]
• L2 DEX pools (Base/Arbitrum): Highest TVL/volume growth quartile.

Table 3: DEX Stablecoin Market Share & Volume

Source: Dune, CoinLaw, DeFiLlama, Q3 2025; see Chart 3.

Whale/Institutional Case Studies

• On-chain raise for ETH treasury: Sep 8, Arkham wallet received $375M USDT/USDC from Coinbase Prime, Mantle Eco, Galaxy Digital; funds static, likely DAO/fund raise/RWA entry.^[5:5]
• Binance Launchpad, Jul 10: $35M BNB deployed via 4 addresses to participate in Arkham token sale—illustrating basis/arbitrage use of stables.^[6:3]
• MakerDAO/DAI rotation: Smart contract activity concentrated around MiCA delisting; TVL shifted from Curve to Uniswap/Compound for yield.^[1:12][2:3]

Regulatory Landscape

• MiCA (EU): Fully enforced July 1, 2025; non-compliant stables (USDT, DAI, TUSD, FDUSD) delisted EEA, Curve TVL dropped 38% WoW.^[8:5][11:4]
• GENIUS Act (US): Senate passed June 18, 2025, mandates full reserves, public audits for stables; House vote pending.^[8:6]
• Hong Kong: HKMA stablecoin licensing Aug 1; transitional period until Oct 31. Heightened SFC/HKMA compliance scrutiny from Sep 1.^[9:3]
• Others: Japan (bank issuance), Singapore (MAS code in public consult), China (continued ban, DCEP rollout).
• Impact: Migration to PYUSD/USDC/EURe; liquidity drop from EEA CEXs/DEXes, growth on L2s/post-regulation-compliant venues.^[1:13][11:5]

Market Correlations & Signals

Lead/Lag Analysis & Event Studies

• Aug 6, 2025: Binance +$2B inflow, BTC up 8%+/72h; CEX build-ups lead rallies by ≈2 days.^[4:6]
• MiCA Enforcement, July 1–10: EEA delistings; DAI/TUSD/FDUSD TVL falls 38% WoW. BTC/ETH drawdown ~2.8% in following week; migration to USDC/EURe for compliant EEA trading.^{[1:14][8:7][11:6]}
• No material depegs; price action led by liquidity migration, not systemic risk.

Strategic Implications

Traders — Tactical

• Watch for >$1.5B daily inflows at Binance/OKX as rally indicator.
• Monitor DEX liquidity share shifts; Fluid/Uniswap balance changes >5pp are indicators of capital rotation.
• L2 TVL surges ($250M+ weekly) flag Smart Money positioning.
• Track whale transfers (>=$10M per event, Arkham/Nansen) post-policy or ETF headlines.
• Regulatory event calendar: MiCA, US, HK deadlines.
• ETF/fund inflow data: momentum signals for large asset allocations.
• Outflow spikes (–$800M or more) as key risk signals (e.g., post delistings/hack).

Funds — Strategic

• Allocate to compliant stables/CEXs (PYUSD, USDC, FDUSD; avoid TUSD/DAI in EEA).
• Distribute reserves across L2s/venues for yield and regulatory risk.
• Monitor DEX TVL shifts for exit liquidity/entry timing.
• Integrate regulatory dashboards (EU/US/HK) for rotation triggers.
• Favor DeFi protocols with rising stable yields/volume incentives.
• Use RWA stables/ETF rails for event-driven flows and risk diversification.
• Adjust risk frameworks for regulatory data latency and double-counting in cross-chain/bridged stables.

Methodology & Limitations

• Definitions: Circulating supply = issued minus redeemed; reserves = on-chain CEX-labeled addresses; whale = single $10M+ transfer/institutional address.
• CEX labeling: Relies on Nansen/Arkham/DeFiLlama tags; periodic updates may impact coverage.
• Issuer lag: Tether, Circle, MakerDAO report supply with time lag; DeFiLlama, Glassnode reconcile supply vs on-chain every 7d.
• Bridged stables: Split between canonical and bridged issuance; risk of double-counting.
• Source conflict: Where metrics (e.g., USDT on Tron) differ (DeFiLlama vs issuer), both values included with method notes.
• Regulations: Only official statements (dates, links) cited; non-enacted/rumored bills ignored.
• Analysis windows: Charts/tables follow primary dashboard tickers, weekly data in UTC.

Appendix

• CoinLaw.io: stablecoin supply, chain stats, exchange flows, DEX TVL.
• Dune Analytics: Stablecoin/dashboard links (see Data Dictionary).
• DeFiLlama: https://defillama.com/
• Arkham/Nansen: Whale flows, CEX wallet tags.
• CryptoQuant: CEX reserves/flow charts.
• MiCA: https://www.bbva.com/en/economy-and-finance/mica-reaches-its-six-month-milestone-early-takeaways-and-challenges-ahead/
• GENIUS Act: https://phemex.com/blogs/stablecoin-regulation-2025-global-liquidity-trading-strategies
• HKMA: https://www.linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2025/september/05/asia-fintech-and-payments-regulatory-update---september-2025

Data Dictionary

• Circulating supply: tokens actively issued per issuer, per chain (not fully diluted).
• CEX reserves: hot/cold addresses as per Nansen/Arkham labeling.
• Inflow/Outflow: Net asset delta to exchange wallets (USD).
• Whale: Transfer ≥$10M or labeled fund address (Arkham/Nansen).
• DEX liquidity share: Pool TVL share in stable-only pools per protocol.
• TVL: Total pool assets in smart contracts.

Visuals

• Chart 1: Stablecoin Circulating Supply by Quarter, Q3 2024–Q3 2025
• Chart 2: Weekly CEX Net Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows, Q3 2025
• Chart 3: DEX Stablecoin Liquidity Share & Volumes, Q3 2024–Q3 2025
• Table 1: Circulating Supply by Token & Chain
• Table 2: Net Weekly CEX Stablecoin Inflows/Outflows
• Table 3: DEX Stablecoin Market Share & Volume

All metrics verifiable via dashboards in References; for full dashboard links/tickers, see Appendix.
^{[19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]}

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38. https://www.solulab.com/a-brief-guide-on-crypto-liquidity-pools/ ↩︎
39. https://www.fastbull.com/news-detail/arkham-reveals-the-worlds-biggest-crypto-whales-in-news_6100_0_2025_3_11206_3/6100_XRP-USDT ↩︎
40. https://corporates.db.com/publications/flipbook/white-paper/regulatory-outlook-in-securities-services-2025.pdf ↩︎
41. https://pintu.co.id/en/news/202814-3-favorite-crypto-whales-hunted-in-september-according-to-nansen-data ↩︎
42. https://cryptoadventure.com/8-6b-bitcoin-whale-transfer-shows-no-signs-of-sell-off-arkham/ ↩︎
43. https://legalnodes.com/article/stablecoin-regulation ↩︎