Signal · Macro Liquidity
Macro Repricing: Fed FOMC Probabilities Adjust as CPI Data Impacts Treasury Yields
Macro and Rate Expectations Shift as CPI Data Influences Fed FOMC Probabilities and Treasury Yields Over the past 48 hours, macroeconomic signals reflect a market repricing towards earlier Fed rate cuts driven by softer CPI data and revised FOMC probability expectations. Interest…
Thesis
Macro and Rate Expectations Shift as CPI Data Influences Fed FOMC Probabilities and Treasury Yields
Key findings
- Over the past 48 hours, macroeconomic signals reflect a market repricing towards earlier Fed rate cuts driven by softer CPI data and revised FOMC probability expectations. Interest rate derivatives, Treasury yields, and Fed communication have all adjusted accordingly, impacting liquidity and capital flow dynamics in the macro environment.
- The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 97.5% probability of no change at the June FOMC, with a 72% likelihood of holding in July and a 67% chance of a 25 basis point cut by September. Implied total cuts by the end of 2024 now stand at approximately 46 basis points, up from 36 basis points before the latest CPI release.
- Two-year Treasury yields have decreased by 17 basis points to 4.73%, while 10-year yields declined by 15 basis points to 4.35%, reflecting a steepening curve and increased demand for long-duration assets amid inflation relief. The April CPI report showed a 0.3% monthly increase and 3.4% annual growth, slightly below consensus, which contributed to the market’s shift towards expectations of earlier easing.
Analysis
Fed funds futures imply a 4.95% rate for December 2024, down from 5.10%, indicating market expectations of roughly 50 basis points of easing by year-end. Fed officials, including Jefferson and Kashkari, have emphasized that it remains “too soon to declare victory on inflation,” maintaining a cautious tone despite the market’s dovish shift.
Collectively, these signals demonstrate a market consensus that inflation moderation and softer CPI data are prompting a reassessment of the Fed’s tightening path, with implications for liquidity conditions and interest rate trajectories.
These OSINT signals suggest a potential for increased liquidity and a shift in capital flows as market expectations of rate cuts firm up, which could influence macroeconomic stability and energy infrastructure investment strategies. The data underscores the evolving relationship between inflation data, Fed communication, and interest rate expectations.
The dataset does not specify the detailed composition of Treasury liquidity or the impact of forward guidance beyond the current figures, limiting the scope of precise market impact analysis.